Case study — valuing a logistics platform in the Tanger Med free zone (DCF VPGA 2)

1. Presentation of the asset (anonymised case)

• Location: Logistics Activities Zone (ZAL) of Tanger Med, within the free zone perimeter (MEDZ Industrial Parks / TMSA Export Free Zone status). Direct access to the Tanger Med container port, close to Tanger Automotive City.
• Land: 3.2 hectares (32,000 sqm), long emphyteutic lease on free-zone land (typically 30-50 years renewable under MEDZ / TMSA agreements), logistics zoning.
• Buildings: Grade A logistics platform, 16,500 sqm of warehousing + 800 sqm of R+1 offices + 1,200 sqm cross-docking area. 12 m clear height under haunch, 5 t/sqm floor loading, 16 dock levellers with hydraulic levellers + 4 automatic sectional doors, ESFR sprinklers, quartz-hardened reinforced concrete floor, storable technical mezzanine.
• Tenant: Tier 1 automotive supplier, subsidiary of a listed international group. 12-year commercial lease signed 2 years ago, annual indexation, first-demand parent-company guarantee, 6-month security deposit.
• Passing rent: positioned within the Grade A Tanger Med 2025 range (≈186-232 MAD/sqm/month based on public asks) — consistent with the Tier 1 supplier standard.
• Purpose of the report: due diligence for acquisition by a Moroccan OPCI as part of a logistics portfolio strategy.
• Valuation date: Q2 2026.

2. Methodological choice — why DCF as primary

Three features drive the choice toward the income approach, expressed as DCF Term & Reversion (RICS VPS 3 / VPGA 2):

• Solid tenant, long lease, group guarantee — the rental flow is highly predictable over the residual term of the lease. This is the OPCI signature: acquiring secured assets generating a contractual yield.
• Liquid Grade A logistics market — Tanger Med is one of the deepest Moroccan markets for institutional logistics transactions. Comparables exist and allow a documented prime cap rate.
• Free-zone specifics — the tax regime (extended corporate-tax relief under Law 19-94, customs-duty exemption, VAT exemption on export sales) directly affects the premium the acquirer is willing to pay. The DCF integrates these advantages into the retained yield.

3. Term & Reversion — building the DCF

Term phase — discounting the contractual rent to lease expiry (10 residual years). Initial rent × ((1 + indexation)^n) for each year. Indexation assumption: a prudent assumption aligned with the expected average Moroccan inflation is used. The capitalisation rate applied to the term reflects the quality of the tenant — within the OPCI Morocco 6-9% range, the low end is appropriate for a Tier 1 automotive supplier in a free zone on a long lease.

Reversion phase — discounting the market economic rent (ERV) from expiry, capitalised in perpetuity with a nil long-term growth rate. ERV retained within the Grade A Tanger Med 2025 range, adjusted for: (a) the technical quality of the site, (b) the tension of the free-zone logistics market, (c) the standard required by Tier 1 suppliers. The reversion cap rate is higher than the term — typically +50 to +100 bps — to integrate the re-letting risk premium (vacancy + works + commission + new ERV to confirm). If the ERV is higher than the passing rent, the asset is under-rented and the reversion creates value.

Discount rate — distinct from the cap rate. A target IRR consistent with OPCI logistics expectations in Morocco is retained, which depends on the market average WACC and the country risk profile. The ± 50 bps sensitivity is set out in the report.

4. Free-zone specifics — adjustments

The Tanger Med free zone brings advantages that translate directly into the cap rate:

• Tax regime — Law 19-94 (ZAI) applied to free zones: corporate-tax relief for 5 years then a capped rate (typically 15%), customs-duty exemption on inputs and equipment, VAT exemption on export sales. For the OPCI, this protects the tenant's margins and therefore its ability to honour the rent over time — a yield-compression factor.
• Stable legal framework — emphyteutic lease on MEDZ / TMSA land with public rules. High legal security vs classic industrial land where challenges are possible.
• Demand / supply tension — Tier 1 automotive + aerospace demand is structural (cf. Renault, Stellantis, Gotion expansions), and Grade A supply is scarce. Tenant turnover is low.
• Limit — the emphyteutic lease implies a perpetuity bounded by the residual term. Beyond the residual horizon, the land reverts to MEDZ / TMSA under the agreements. For the reversion perpetuity, a “terminal value at the end of the emphyteutic lease” approach is used, which bounds the exercise.

5. Cross-check by direct capitalisation

Direct capitalisation = (market ERV × area) / prime cap rate. This simpler method serves as a quick cross-checkto the DCF and gives the market's “price at prime cap rate”. If the gap between DCF and direct capitalisation is small (< 5%), that is reassuring. A significant gap calls for an analysis of the cause (reversion impact, sensitivity to parameters).

6. Cross-check by comparable

Search for OPCI Morocco transactions over the last 24 months on free-zone logistics platforms or equivalent Grade A. The sample is confidential by nature — the appraisal firm's internal database is here the best source. Documented adjustments on: (a) precise location (Tanger Med vs Mohammedia vs Kénitra), (b) tenant quality and residual lease term, (c) technical specifications of the buildings, (d) applicable tax regime.

7. Reconciliation and retained value

The report presents the three results (DCF, direct capitalisation, comparable) and their relative weights:

• DCF (primary, weight 60-70%) — reflects the acquiring OPCI's logic: secured contractual flow + market economic reversion. This is the “investor” value.
• Direct capitalisation (cross-check, weight 15-25%) — verifies consistency with the market's prime cap rate.
• Comparable (validation, weight 15-25%) — confirms with recent transactions.

Sensitivities presented in the report: term cap rate ± 50 bps, reversion cap rate ± 100 bps, ERV ± 10%, IRR ± 50 bps. The objective is to give the OPCI a defensible value range for its investment committee and its auditor.

8. Presenting the report for an OPCI

The delivered report covers the standards required by OPCI auditors and by the AMMC (Moroccan Capital Markets Authority):

• Opening letter, base of value (IVS 104 — Market Value), scope, valuation date.
• Full description of the asset — land, buildings, equipment, tenant, letting situation, legal situation (emphyteutic lease, free zone).
• Market analysis — Tanger Med, automotive suppliers, supply/demand tensions, reference transactions.
• Methods applied with detailed assumptions and DCF modelling in appendix.
• Cross-checks (direct capitalisation + comparable).
• Synthesis, concluded value, sensitivities.
• Limits, assumptions under which the value is valid, post-valuation events to monitor.
• IFRS 13 (Fair Value Measurement) compliance for integration into OPCI reporting.
• Engagement of the signing expert (qualification, independence, compliance with RICS Red Book Global Standards 2025).

9. Comparison with a logistics asset outside the free zone

To understand the impact of the free zone, one can compare with an equivalent asset in a classic industrial zone (e.g. Aïn Sebaâ, Mohammedia). All other things being equal:

• Tighter cap rate in the free zone — typically -50 to -150 bps depending on the quality of the asset and tenant — hence higher value.
• Stronger OPCI liquidity in the free zone, a deeper market.
• But the emphyteutic-lease constraint limits the reversion perpetuity (vs full ownership on private land).

This trade-off explains why more and more OPCIs prioritise the Tanger Med free zone for their new logistics acquisitions.

Note: This case study is anonymised and methodological. The ranges mentioned are market orders of magnitude that depend on the economic climate, the comparables available, and the precise characteristics of the asset. The final value of a real asset always results from case-by-case field analysis. See more analyses on the ReaConsult blog or our real estate appraisal service.