1. Summary — national index Q4 2025
The IPAI is produced jointly by Bank Al-Maghrib (Morocco's central bank) and ANCFCC (the National Land Registry Agency), and aggregates all formally registered urban real estate transactions. Q4 2025 confirms the soft-landing trajectory started in 2024.
| Segment | Index Q4 2025 | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential (all types) | 107.9 | +0.2 % | +1.8 % |
| Apartments | 108.4 | +0.1 % | +1.6 % |
| Villas | 106.2 | +0.3 % | +2.1 % |
| Land (all types) | 116.2 | +0.7 % | +2.3 % |
| Professional (offices & retail) | 104.8 | +0.4 % | +1.2 % |
Index base = 2010. Source: Bank Al-Maghrib & ANCFCC, IPAI Q4 2025 release.
2. What the numbers mean
The +1.8 % year-on-year residential growth is below Bank Al-Maghrib's 2025 inflation (+2.3 %), meaning real residential prices are slightly negative in 2025. This reflects:
- Continued affordability stress on first-time buyers post rate hikes
- Selective MRE return, focused on premium segments
- Slowdown of new-build permits (-12 % in 2025 vs 2024)
- Steady absorption of existing inventory in mid-range segments
Land prices (+2.3 % YoY) outpace residential. Scarce buildable land in Casablanca (Anfa, CFC) and Rabat (Hay Riad, Souissi) drives this gap. Professional real estate (offices, retail) trails at +1.2 % — tertiary vacancy still elevated in secondary CBDs.
3. City-level IPAI Q4 2025
| City | YoY | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Casablanca | +2.1 % | Anfa & CFC drive; peripheral stable |
| Rabat | +1.6 % | Premium Souissi +4 %; Salé flat |
| Marrakech | +2.4 % | Riads & villas strong (MRE) |
| Tangier | +1.9 % | Free Zone & corniche drivers |
| Fes | +0.8 % | Softer, medina premium maintained |
| Agadir | +2.7 % | Taghazout coast fastest mover |
4. Transaction volumes
Formal urban transactions in Q4 2025: ~21 400 registered at ANCFCC, vs ~19 800 in Q4 2024 (+8 %). Casablanca alone accounts for 38 % of national volume; Rabat-Salé-Kénitra 18 %; Marrakech 11 %; Tangier 9 %; Fes 6 %; Agadir 5 %; other cities 13 %.
Transaction values (not volume): 28 % of the national envelope transits through Casablanca, with an average ticket of 1.8 M MAD vs national average 1.2 M MAD.
5. Outlook Q1-Q4 2026
- Interest rates — BAM held policy rate at 2.5 % since Q3 2025. Market expects a 25 bps cut by Q4 2026, which would stimulate mid-range transactions.
- New-build pipeline — constrained supply → continued support for renovated stock in the 2026 range.
- MRE & foreign demand — 2025 summer confirmed structural return on premium segments; 2026 should see +2-3 % pricing pressure on prime.
- Tertiary — Casablanca CFC and Rabat Hay Riad Class A stable; secondary locations continue to face absorption lag.
Central projection 2026: national residential +2.5 to +3.5 % YoY, with divergence between prime (+4-5 %) and mid-range (+1-2 %). Land prices +3-4 %.
Frequently asked questions
What is the IPAI?
IPAI (Indice des Prix des Actifs Immobiliers) is the official Moroccan real estate price index, produced quarterly by Bank Al-Maghrib and ANCFCC. It covers all formally registered urban transactions — residential, land and professional.
Does the IPAI cover all Moroccan cities?
It covers all urban transactions registered at ANCFCC, with city-level breakdowns for Casablanca, Rabat, Marrakech, Tangier, Fes, Agadir, Meknes, Oujda and aggregated secondary cities.
How reliable is the data?
The IPAI aggregates formal transactions only (registered at ANCFCC). Informal transactions and under-declarations are not captured — but the formal base is the reference used by Bank Al-Maghrib for policy.
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