The brief: a France-based MRE investor plans to acquire 5 ha of agricultural land for 18 M MAD (360 MAD/m²). The seller argues for a post-rezoning capital gain reaching 12,000 MAD/m² (target value 600 M MAD). The appraisal must rule: is the asking price aligned with 2026 market value, or does it anticipate an uncertain event? Method: RICS VPGA 10.
1. The asset and its context
- Location: commune in Rabat's north-east outskirts, on the edge of Sidi Yahia El Gharb / Témara, 14 km from city centre, secondary road access.
- Area: 5.02 ha (50,200 m²) with 92 m frontage.
- Legal status: registered title TF 12,478/27, full ownership, no charges, single seller.
- 2026 zoning: agricultural (ZA) under the Master Plan in force since 2018.
- SDAU 2024-2040 (under adoption): the land sits in a future mixed-use extension area (residential + amenities), horizon 2030-2034. Effective rezoning probability 32-38%.
- Networks: water at boundary, MV electricity 350 m, no sewage.
2. Applicable legal framework (RICS + Moroccan law)
- Urban planning Law 12-90 — frames SDAUs and PAs, sets the modification procedure (30-day public inquiry minimum, art. 23 et seq.).
- Subdivision Law 25-90 reformed by Law 34-21 (published end-2024) — tightens conditions for opening agricultural land to urbanisation.
- Agricultural Investment Code — restricts use changes outside an approved master plan.
- RICS Red Book Global Standards 2025, VPGA 10 — option-value methodology.
- RICS VPS 5 — sales comparison method on agricultural comparables; VPS 5 / VPGA 10 on residual buildable comparables.
3. Current agricultural value (Va) — VPS 5 comparison
Five agricultural comparables retained (12-month lookback, 12 km perimeter, similar zoning): mean price 825 MAD/m², range 720-940. Adjustments for situation, agronomic quality, network access. Result:
Va = 850 MAD/m² × 50,200 m² = 42.67 M MAD as 2026 pure-agricultural market value.
4. Projected buildable value (Vc) — residual method
Buildable assumptions 2030-2034 (expected mixed zoning R+3, CES 50%, COS 1.2):
Vc = 54.8 M MAD ≈ 1,092 MAD/m² as 2030 residual land value, assuming effective rezoning at the PA.
5. VPGA 10 option value — synthesis
Applying the option-value formula:
with:
— Va = 42.67 M MAD (2026 agricultural value)
— Vc = 54.8 M MAD (2030 residual value if rezoning)
— p = 35% (effective rezoning probability by 2030)
— r = 11% (discount rate: 10-yr bond 3.5% + land risk premium 4.5% + illiquidity 3%)
— t = 5 years
Vo = 42.67 + (54.8 − 42.67) × 0.35 / 1.11⁵ = 42.67 + 12.13 × 0.35 / 1.685 = 42.67 + 2.52 = 45.19 M MAD, i.e. ≈ 900 MAD/m².
Sensitivity tests (probability 25-45%, rate 9-13%, horizon 4-7 years): option-value range 43.8 – 47.1 M MAD, i.e. 870 – 940 MAD/m². The MV of 4,200 MAD/m² the seller hints at would only hold under aggressive assumptions (probability 60%, horizon 3 years, rate 8%) — which are not justified given the SDAU 2024-2040 still under adoption and the more restrictive 34-21 reform.
6. Conclusion and recommendations
The seller's asking price (18 M MAD = 360 MAD/m²) is below the calculated option value (45.19 M MAD = 900 MAD/m²) — therefore objectively attractive. But the promised 12,000 MAD/m² post-rezoning gain (600 M MAD) is excessive under reasonable assumptions: it presumes certain, near-term rezoning with no discounting. The residual land value at the end of a built program does not exceed 1,092 MAD/m² in 2030, and only if everything goes to plan.
Recommendation to investor:
- Acquisition viable at the asking price (18 M MAD), with real but conditional upside — do not treat the expected gain as certain.
- Structure the acquisition via a Moroccan SCI to optimise resale taxation.
- Plan a holding-cost envelope (land tax, custodial fees, capital interest) of 250-400 K MAD per year — i.e. 1.2-2 M MAD over 5 years.
- Push for a favourable SDAU revision via public consultation (Law 12-90, art. 23 et seq.) if the land becomes strategic to the commune.
- Re-appraise every 18 months — particularly when SDAU 2024-2040 is finally adopted.
Related articles
- Land indivision residual method — Casablanca case study
- Verifying a land title in Morocco — buyer's guide
- Moroccan land registration — Dahir 1913 & Law 14-07
See our full Morocco real-estate blog or our RICS appraisal services.
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