A rise that starts from a low point
In the second quarter of 2026 the national property asset price index reached 106.79, against 106.07 the previous quarter — a gain of 0.68%, and 0.69% year on year. Transaction volumes rose 11% over the quarter.
Taken alone, that is the fourth strongest second-quarter gain recorded since 2006. It is worth noting. But a quarterly change is always measured against the quarter before it — and the first quarter of 2026 fell 1.95%, from 108.18 to 106.07.
The index lost 2.10 points in Q1 and regained 0.72 in Q2. The rebound erases 34% of the fall. In level terms the market remains 1.28% below its end-2025 point — and 0.80% below where it stood at the end of 2024 (107.65).
This is not a presentational nuance. It is the difference between “prices are rising” and “prices are climbing back out of a hole they have not yet filled”. For an owner deciding whether to sell, a buyer negotiating, or an investor rebalancing, those two readings lead to different decisions.
Segment by segment, in levels
Index levels, base 100 = 2006. The last column measures the gap to the previous high point (Q4 2025).
| Segment | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q2 / Q1 | Year on year | vs Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All assets | 108.18 | 106.07 | 106.79 | +0.68% | +0.69% | -1.28% |
| Residential | 109.06 | 106.31 | 107.42 | +1.04% | +0.96% | -1.50% |
| Flats | 108.58 | 106.13 | 107.23 | +1.04% | +1.12% | -1.24% |
| Houses | 108.03 | 105.05 | 105.34 | +0.28% | -0.68% | -2.49% |
| Villas | 117.09 | 110.39 | 114.01 | +3.28% | -0.31% | -2.63% |
| Land | 116.20 | 113.17 | 113.86 | +0.61% | +0.26% | -2.01% |
| Commercial assets | 106.27 | 105.57 | 105.94 | +0.35% | +0.63% | -0.31% |
| Retail units | 107.04 | 106.01 | 106.01 | 0.00% | +0.40% | -0.96% |
| Offices | 107.61 | 104.59 | 110.14 | +5.31% | +2.87% | +2.35% |
Source: IPAI series, Bank Al-Maghrib & ANCFCC. Changes calculated on published index levels.
Villas are the quarter’s false move.They post the bulletin’s largest gain at 3.28%. But they had shed 5.72% in Q1 — the sharpest break of any segment. In level terms they remain 2.63% below December, and 0.31% down year on year. The dramatic move is a partial return, not appreciation.
Houses are not restarting. At +0.27% on the quarter they recover only 10% of their fall and stay 2.49% below end-2025. This is the only residential segment down year on year (−0.68%), with volumes also 5.6% lower over twelve months despite a 25.4% quarterly bounce. Detached houses and villas are where solvent demand remains most constrained.
Flats are the only genuinely coherent segment. Prices up 1.04% on the quarter and 1.12% on the year, transactions up 4.6% year on year. Prices and volumes moving together is the signature of a working market rather than a technical catch-up. Even so, the segment sits 1.24% below its end-2025 level.
Q1 2026: the worst first quarter since 2008
First quarters are frequently negative in this series: of the twenty measured since 2007, thirteen fell, with a median of −0.34%. There is a genuine start-of-year dip, tied to the registration calendar as much as to the market itself.
But −1.95% sits outside that pattern. It is close to six times the median and the sharpest first-quarter fall since 2008. The chart below places it in the full series.
National index change in each first quarter (%)
Source: IPAI series, Bank Al-Maghrib & ANCFCC · ReaConsult calculation on quarterly index levels
All ten cities remain below their end-2025 level
City-level index. Six cities rose on the quarter, four fell — but none has regained its December point.
| City | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q2 / Q1 | vs Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tangier | 116.75 | 112.14 | 114.73 | +2.31% | -1.73% |
| Rabat | 113.72 | 108.23 | 110.30 | +1.91% | -3.01% |
| Fez | 110.28 | 107.87 | 109.66 | +1.66% | -0.56% |
| Kenitra | 105.58 | 104.76 | 105.45 | +0.66% | -0.12% |
| Marrakech | 108.74 | 107.32 | 107.88 | +0.52% | -0.79% |
| Casablanca | 103.67 | 101.96 | 102.48 | +0.51% | -1.15% |
| El Jadida | 96.22 | 95.21 | 95.18 | -0.03% | -1.08% |
| Agadir | 105.30 | 105.34 | 105.28 | -0.06% | -0.02% |
| Meknes | 110.74 | 108.92 | 107.98 | -0.86% | -2.49% |
| Oujda | 99.47 | 99.64 | 98.77 | -0.87% | -0.70% |
Source: city-level IPAI series, Bank Al-Maghrib & ANCFCC
The right-hand column tells the story: it is negative for all ten cities, from −0.02% in Agadir to −3.01% in Rabat. No exception. The first-quarter retreat was general, and the second-quarter recovery has closed it nowhere.
Tangier and Rabat post the largest quarterly gains (+2.32% and +1.91%) — but they are also the two cities that fell furthest, and they remain 1.72% and 3.01% below December. In Tangier, land prices jumped 7.26% on the quarter with land transactions up 54.9%: the most active segment in the country.
Casablanca remains the flattest market in index terms (102.48, barely 2.5 points above its 2006 base, against nearly 15 for Tangier). Its residential index gained 0.71% on the quarter and land 1.85%, yet the whole sits 1.14% below end-2025. Meknes and Oujda fell again in Q2 without rebounding at all — the only two cities where the decline ran for two consecutive quarters.
Volumes tell a different story from prices
Transactions rose 11% on the quarter and 6.3% year on year. How that increase is distributed matters more than the headline.
Source: IPAI bulletin no. 67, Bank Al-Maghrib & ANCFCC — change in number of transactions
Houses and villas post the largest quarterly volume gains (+25.4% and +34%) while remaining down year on year (−5.6% and −7.1%). Volumes that leap from one quarter to the next yet sit below last year describe a market unfreezing, not a market widening.
The only segment where prices and volumes advance together over twelve months is commercial property: +0.63% on price for +31.9% on transactions, with offices at +2.87% and +36.7%. It is the clearest move in the bulletin — and the only index back above its end-2025 level (+2.36%).
What this quarter changes in practice
If you are selling: December is no longer the reference
An owner who had their property appraised in the last quarter of 2025 is working from a high point. Their segment's index has fallen since, and Q2 has not brought it back. For a flat the gap is 1.24%; for a house, 2.49%. These are national orders of magnitude, not the value of any one property — but they are enough to explain why an asking price set in December may find no buyer today.
If you are buying: volumes return before prices do
An 11% rise in transactions means deals stuck in the first quarter closed in the second. When volumes move before prices, negotiating room still exists but is narrowing. That is especially true for detached houses, where sellers have few recent comparables to point to.
If you are rebalancing a portfolio: commercial has decoupled from residential
Offices are the only index above their end-2025 level (+2.36%), carried by volumes up 36.7% year on year. Residential remains 1.50% below. Two segments diverging this far over two quarters do not respond to the same framework.
In every case: an index is not a figure for your property
The index aggregates thousands of repeat sales across a country and ten cities. It describes a direction. It says nothing about floor level, aspect, condition, actual floor area, title status or street — and those account for most of the gap between two neighbouring properties.
A regional index describes a trend, not a property. Moving from one to the other requires real comparable transactions in the property’s immediate area, adjusted for differences in area, condition and date — the work of a property valuation, with reports prepared to RICS Red Book standards. For the long view of this trajectory, see our analysis of twenty years of the index, 2006-2025, and the Q4 2025 bulletin.
Key points
- +The national index reached 106.79 in Q2 2026: +0.68% on the quarter, +0.69% year on year.
- +Q1 2026 had fallen 1.95%, the sharpest first-quarter drop since 2008. Q2 erases only 34% of it.
- +In level terms the index remains 1.28% below its end-2025 point — and all ten tracked cities sit below theirs.
- +Villas (+3.28%) are the quarter's false move: they had lost 5.72% in Q1 and are still down year on year.
- +Flats are the only residential segment where prices (+1.12%) and volumes (+4.6%) rise together over twelve months.
- +Offices are the only index back above end-2025 (+2.36%), with sales up 36.7% year on year.
Frequently asked questions
What does the index show in Q2 2026?
It stands at 106.79, up 0.68% on the quarter and 0.69% year on year, but 1.28% below its Q4 2025 level of 108.18 because the first quarter fell 1.95%. The Q2 rebound recovers only 34% of that drop.
Why read the index in levels rather than percentage changes?
A quarterly change is measured against the previous quarter. If that quarter was low, a rise may be no more than a partial return. Villas illustrate it: +3.28% in Q2 after −5.72% in Q1, leaving them 2.63% below end-2025. Bank Al-Maghrib publishes the levels, which makes this reading possible.
Is the first quarter always weak?
Often, not always: of twenty first quarters since 2007, thirteen fell, with a median of −0.34%. Q1 2026 at −1.95% is close to six times that median and the sharpest fall since 2008 (−2.96%). Seasonality alone does not explain it.
Which cities rose in Q2 2026?
Six of ten: Tangier (+2.32%), Rabat (+1.91%), Fez (+1.66%), Kenitra (+0.66%), Marrakech (+0.53%) and Casablanca (+0.51%). Meknes, Oujda, Agadir and El Jadida fell. None has regained its Q4 2025 level.
How is the index calculated?
By the repeat-sales method, base 100 in 2006: only properties transacted at least twice enter the calculation, which neutralises the heterogeneity of the stock sold. Data are cut off 35 days after quarter-end, so historical series are revised in later publications.
Is the index enough to price my property?
No. It is a national and city-level trend indicator. The value of a given property depends on its precise location, actual floor area, condition, aspect and title situation. Those are measured against comparable transactions in the same area, not against an aggregate index.
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